In the event of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death or incapacitation, analysts suggest the IRGC could attempt to bypass the Assembly of Experts and install a figurehead successor, consolidating direct military control over the state. This scenario could trigger resistance from reformist factions, the regular military (Artesh), and segments of the clergy who view such a move as a violation of the constitutional framework. The Artesh, which has long been sidelined, underfunded, and subjected to IRGC interference in promotions and operations, could view a power grab as a breaking point — years of institutional humiliation may have already eroded loyalty to a system that treats conventional forces as second-class. Regional commanders with semi-autonomous control over border provinces might refuse directives from Tehran, potentially fracturing the chain of command along provincial lines.

Iran's border provinces contain significant Kurdish, Baloch, Azeri, and Arab populations that have historically experienced economic marginalization and political repression. Analysts assess that a severe economic crisis or perceived weakening of central authority could embolden coordinated separatist movements, particularly in Kurdistan, Sistan-Baluchestan, and Khuzestan provinces simultaneously. Such a multi-front internal challenge would stretch IRGC and Basij forces thin, and neighboring states with ethnic ties across the border — notably Iraqi Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan — could become staging areas or sources of material support, complicating Tehran's ability to contain unrest.

Iran's economy operates under layers of international sanctions, systemic corruption, and IRGC monopolization of key industries. Analysts suggest that a sudden shock — such as a currency collapse, fuel subsidy removal, or banking system failure — could ignite mass protests in major cities like Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad that overwhelm the regime's crowd-control capacity. Unlike the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, a purely economic uprising could cut across class and ethnic lines, uniting the urban middle class with rural poor and industrial workers. If security forces fracture under the pressure of firing on their own communities, or if conscript units refuse orders, the regime could face a legitimacy crisis with no negotiating partner and no clear path to restoration of control.